As discussed in the last blog entry, unfortunately, an automated, rules-based, expert systems approach to diagnosing performance-related problems turns out to be too brittle to be very effective. The simple threshold-based rules invoked by various authorities often need to be fleshed out with additional conditions and exceptions. Once the rule is burdened with all the predicates necessary to qualify an expert’s assessment of the data in context, the automated reasoning process starts to break down. It turns out it isn’t so easy to encapsulate an expert’s knowledge and judgment into a simple, declarative rule. The expertise a performance analyst cultivates can involve pattern matching based on experience with many other incidents with similar problems encountered in the past. Where the human diagnostic expert often indulges in intuition based on that background and professional experience, it is difficult to craft a mathematical or logical rule that can accurately mimic that reasoning ...
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